Complete technical reference to calculations, Statcast aerodynamic physics, Golden Standard trifecta, badges, trending props, game simulations, and Kalshi prediction markets.
Moneyball v2.1 is an AI + Physics Ensemble Model engineered to project daily MLB Home Run probabilities. It synthesizes 18 Statcast batted-ball metrics, real-time stadium microclimate aerodynamics, pitcher pitch-family vulnerability, career Batter-vs-Pitcher (BvP) logs, and 21-day rolling Hitter Form Index (HFI) momentum into a unified predictive board.
Backtested on multi-season Statcast data, the highest-conviction home run environment occurs when all three historical physical pillars align:
The master slate ranking. Blends SimHR% (22%), Edge vs Market (18%), PowerStack (17%), Pitcher Vulnerability (14%), Pitch Matchup (10%), Hard-Hit % (8%), SwingPath (6%), and Form (5%).
True physical probability of homering tonight. Derived from exit velocity, launch angles, pitcher vulnerability, park factors, and microclimate wind vectors.
Net percentage added or subtracted from the hitter's baseline HR rate purely due to tonight's temperature, elevation, humidity, and wind aerodynamics.
Standalone 10,000-game Monte Carlo simulation simulating individual at-bats: PA1 vs fresh starter, PA2 settled starter, PA3 fatigued starter (TTO3), and PA4/5 bullpen arms. Generates exact simulated HR rate and 0–100% signal bar.
Park HR factor tailored specifically to the batter's handedness (LHB vs RHB). Values ≥1.10x indicate elite short-porch boosting environments.
Divergence: Mathematical betting edge vs sportsbook lines. PropFilter: Clearance across 4 Statcast hurdles (Barrel ≥10%, HH ≥32%, ISO ≥.200, Park ≥+5%).
5-game visual history with glowing red dots (🔴) for HRs and dark dots (⚫) for non-HR games to identify rhythm tendencies.
Pitcher's Fastball (FB), Breaking (BR), and Offspeed (OS) usage percentages alongside batter's expected slugging (xSLG) and rating (CRUSH, EDGE, OK, WEAK).
Real-time stadium wind velocity, temperature, and 360° rotating compass dial showing pull-field wind impact (e.g. +4.5 out 1B/RF).
FullStack, SimHR%, Signal %, Park Factor) to sort the slate instantly.+350) directly into the odds box on any card and press Enter to instantly recalculate Divergence and Edge.The Trending Props Engine automatically scans verified MLB game logs across every starting batter on today's slate to uncover high-probability betting trends, active hit streaks, and consistency metrics.
Covers Hits (0.5+, 1.5+), H+R+RBI (1.5+, 2.5+), Total Bases (1.5+, 2.5+), Home Runs (0.5+), Singles (0.5+, 1.5+), Extra Base Hits, Runs, RBIs, and Stolen Bases.
Toggle between L10 (primary momentum), L5 (recent form), L20 (stability), and 2026 Season baseline, plus Home/Away and H2H splits.
Cards feature the player's HR model FullStack score (FS). Click ⇅ Sort by FullStack to instantly prioritize top model conviction plays.
The 🎯 target emoji spotlights opposing pitchers with high HR/9 (≥1.15) or blowup risk, indicating favorable power & contact conditions.
@OPP), and threshold lines.⭐ 90%+, ⚡ 80%+, 🔥 70%+, or Streak ≥3G).The MLB Game Simulation Engine runs 10,000 Poisson Monte Carlo iterations per matchup on today's slate, projecting final scores, Moneyline win probabilities, Run Line coverage (+/- 1.5), and Over/Under run totals.
Simulates Starter (Innings 1–5), Transition (Inning 6), Bullpen (Innings 7–8), and realistic 9th-inning home walk-off / lead truncation mechanics.
Lineup offensive expectations are dynamically adjusted against starter handedness (vs LHP / vs RHP) using official team split win rates.
Cross-references 30-team Against The Spread (RL) cover rates, Net Unit ROI, and Over/Under tendencies from VegasInsider.
Categorizes bets by mathematical divergence: ⭐⭐⭐ 3-Star Best Bet (Edge ≥7.5%), ⭐⭐ 2-Star Value (Edge ≥4.0%), ⭐ 1-Star Lean (Edge ≥1.5%).
⭐ BEST RL, 🔥 BEST TOTAL, 💎 BEST ML, and 🐶 VALUE DOG header badges.
Moneyball v2.1 features full, real-time integration with Kalshi CFTC-regulated prediction markets across both individual player home run props (KXMLBHR) and game-level moneyline winner markets (KXMLBGAME).
Live orderbook tracking for 1+ HR contracts. Displays Kalshi implied probability percentage (e.g. 🏛️Kalshi 21.0%), YES Ask / YES Bid pricing (e.g. 21¢ / 19¢), contract ticker, and Model Edge % (e.g. ⚡+217%) comparing Moneyball's SimHR% against Kalshi orderbook consensus.
Real-time team win probability integration on game matchup scoreboards. Ingests orderbook YES/NO pricing for team win contracts, displaying market implied win % alongside Moneyball's 10,000-trial Poisson simulation win probability and model edge pillboxes.
Direct contract pricing-to-probability mapping (1¢ = 1.0% implied probability). Evaluates spread tightness (Ask vs. Bid) and computes true model expected value (+EV) against pure peer-to-peer liquidity.
When you enter custom sportsbook odds (e.g. +350) in the live odds box, Moneyball recalculates sportsbook edge while automatically preserving live Kalshi market benchmarks and edge ratios.
The model ingests comprehensive ESPN Situational Split Tables for both batters and pitchers, fusing situational context directly with high-frequency Statcast physics:
Ingests batter BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and AB/HR against opposing pitcher handedness, weighted alongside pitcher splits allowed against LHB/RHB.
Applies Home vs. Away and Day vs. Night splits to calibrate baseline offensive run expectations and environmental deltas.
Evaluates slugging in hitter-friendly counts (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-1) vs. two-strike defense (0-2, 1-2, 2-2) paired with base-state leverage (Bases Empty vs. RISP).
Multi-timeframe form trajectory analyzing Last 7, 15, and 30 Days alongside monthly split progression to detect hot surges and cooling trends.
The MCSimHR% Engine simulates 10,000 physical plate appearances per batter for every matchup on the slate, establishing an empirical Monte Carlo baseline alongside the analytical physics model.
Each trial samples exit velocity (EV), launch angle (LA), bat speed, and aerodynamic drag coefficients based on stadium barometric elevation and temperature.
Samples opposing pitcher pitch distribution (Fastball, Breaking, Offspeed), zone location tendencies, and TTO3 vulnerability to simulate true contact rates.
Fuses continuous analytical physics (SimHR%) with discrete Monte Carlo simulation (MCSimHR%) to eliminate statistical variance and lock in true probability.
Compares the combined simulated home run probability against live sportsbook odds to output accurate expected value (+EV) and divergence ratings.
The Moneyball v2.1 application is built as a high-performance, responsive progressive web application (PWA) with zero installation required. It dynamically scales and adapts across all modern devices and operating systems:
Fully optimized for iOS (iPhone Safari) and Android (Chrome, Samsung Internet). Features touch-friendly game tabs, compact card folding, quick odds overrides, and swipeable tables.
Engineered for macOS, Windows, and Linux across Chrome, Safari, Edge, Firefox, and Brave. Unlocks expansive multi-column grid layouts, full Statcast metrics, and dense live betting boards.
Seamlessly adapts to iPads, Android tablets, and Surface Pros in both portrait and landscape orientations with responsive split-screen betting and chart drawers.
Native integration inside the Whop iOS & Android apps, Whop Hub dashboard, iframe embedded containers, and standalone browser sessions with instant real-time data sync.
Claim exclusive deposit bonuses and promotional offers through our official partner sportsbook and prediction market links below.
Get instant access to daily live slates, interactive pitch matchup tools, and top-tier home run probability rankings.